United States · Midterm elections · 3 November 2026

Who paid to reach American voters before the 2026 midterms

Meta’s political-ad archive holds 740.6K American political and issue ads from 24,034 pages since 4 May 2026. Democrats and the groups on their side outspent Republicans 1.7 to 1, and 2.4 to 1 in races for Congress. Democratic Senate candidates bought for themselves; Republican candidates left Meta to outside groups. 34% of the money took no side: issue groups, ballot measures and public bodies. Google and YouTube took 2.1 times Meta’s money: 5,578 verified advertisers bought 136.1K election ads for $1.03B+ over the same weeks. The biggest buyer was not a campaign but Kalshi Inc.

By Jean Knapik · Ads delivered from 4 May 2026 to 4 November 2026 · Google election ads shown from 4 May 2026 to 5 November 2026 · Results: unofficial count as of 6 November 2026 · Corrections to [email protected]

$409–558Mspent on Meta, by Meta’s ranges: $200M on the Democratic side, $119M on the Republican
$1.03B+spent on Google and YouTube since 4 May 2026, by Google’s ranges
D 54 · R 44Senate seats: Democratic control, 2 seats not called
D 249 · R 157House seats: Democratic control, 29 seats not called

01

California, Texas and Michigan drew the most money

Spend placed in a state by the race or measure its ads are about. Hover a state for its figures; click it for its races, candidates and every advertiser.

The map places $285M of the money (59%) on the state whose race or measure the ads are about. $198M (41%) was about no single state: party fundraising, control of Congress, national issues.

Republican sideDemocratic sideLessMore spendNo ads placedHover a state for its figures · click to open it

Costliest states

  1. 1 · California$38.4M
  2. 2 · Texas$30.3M
  3. 3 · Michigan$21.4M
  4. 4 · Ohio$19.3M
  5. 5 · Florida$14.6M
Open the map: every state, its races and who paid →

02

Spend against the result

Democrats won control of both chambers. Each chamber’s seats in the count, against the Meta spend each side placed on its races. Then every Senate and governor race on the ballot.

The bigger spender on Meta won 44 of 55 called races. That counts the Senate and governor races already called where the two sides together spent at least $100K on Meta: 23 of 27 for the Senate, 21 of 28 for governor. 12 called races spent less and are left out. Outspent and still won: Ashley Moody won the Senate seat in Florida, outspent $1.9M to $681K, Katie Hobbs won the governorship in Arizona, outspent $3.1M to $1.2M, David Crowley won the governorship in Wisconsin, outspent $2.7M to $1.1M, and Maura Healey won the governorship in Massachusetts, outspent $737.8K to $343.6K. 4 Senate and governor races are not yet called.

ChamberDem.Rep.OtherNot calledControlDem. sideRep. side
Senate544402Dem.$58.1M$18.6M
House249157029Dem.$33.7M$19.5M

Senate races

StateCandidates and voteDem. sideRep. sideBigger spender
AlabamaBarry Moore R Won54.7%Everett Wess D45.3%$216.7K$430.6Kwon
AlaskaMary Peltola D48.2%Dan S. Sullivan R47.9%Not yet called · 74.1% in$3.1M$1.4M–
ArkansasTom Cotton R Won54.3%Hallie Shoffner D42.4%$98.1K$132.8Kwon
ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper D Won60.2%Mark Baisley R35.3%$381.7K$3.5Kwon
DelawareChris Coons D Won63.6%Mike Katz R36.4%$14.4K$18Kunder $100K
FloridaspecialAshley Moody R Won50.9%Angie Nixon D48.0%$1.9M$681Klost
GeorgiaJon Ossoff D Won59.0%Mike Collins R41.0%$7M$1.4Mwon
IdahoJim Risch R Won56.5%Todd Achilles I33.5%$18.8K$236Kwon
IllinoisJuliana Stratton D Won61.0%Don Tracy R37.4%$103.8K$6.1Kwon
IowaJosh Turek D Won50.5%Ashley Hinson R46.4%$2.6M$549.3Kwon
KansasAdam Hamilton D Won51.0%Roger Marshall R46.0%$2.6M$368Kwon
KentuckyAndy Barr R Won55.0%Charles Booker D42.9%$92.1K$43.2Klost
LouisianaJulia Letlow R Won50.9%Jamie Davis D49.1%$167.9K$513.8Kwon
MaineTroy Jackson D Won53.2%Susan Collins R46.8%$4.9M$1.3Mwon
MassachusettsEd Markey D Won63.4%John Deaton R32.1%$154.4K$241.7Klost
MichiganAbdul El-Sayed D Won52.5%Mike Rogers R45.5%$9.5M$702.9Kwon
MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan D Won53.7%Michele Tafoya R43.6%$554.8K$449.7Kwon
MississippiScott Colom D49.0%Cindy Hyde-Smith R48.9%Not yet called · 95.7% in$485.1K$50.1K–
MontanaKurt Alme R Won48.3%Seth Bodnar I37.7%$274K$156.3Klost
NebraskaPete Ricketts R Won50.4%Dan Osborn I43.6%$109.6K$507.4Kwon
New HampshireChris Pappas D Won55.9%John Sununu R42.2%$1.1M$228.3Kwon
New JerseyCory Booker D Won62.2%Justin Murphy R35.2%$141.2K$12.4Kwon
New MexicoBen Ray Lujan D Won63.2%Larry Marker R36.8%$68.6K$4.4Kunder $100K
North CarolinaRoy Cooper D Won58.7%Michael Whatley R39.1%$1.8M$676.2Kwon
OhiospecialSherrod Brown D Won50.0%Jon Husted R45.2%$6.6M$4.1Mwon
OklahomaKevin Hern R Won57.2%N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas D39.3%$4.9K$18.3Kunder $100K
OregonJeff Merkley D Won57.4%David Brock Smith R39.5%$9.7K$2.8Kunder $100K
Rhode IslandJack Reed D Won66.8%Raymond McKay R29.3%$117.1K$50won
South CarolinaAnnie Andrews D Won51.1%Darline Graham R46.7%$2.8M$667.7Kwon
South DakotaMike Rounds R Won60.5%Brian Bengs I39.5%$12.2K$43.2Kunder $100K
TennesseeBill Hagerty R Won55.1%Marquita Bradshaw D42.9%$5.7K$138.2Kwon
TexasJames Talarico D Won55.1%Ken Paxton R43.0%$10.2M$3.2Mwon
VirginiaMark Warner D Won61.2%Bert Mizusawa R38.6%$180.4K$10.6Kwon
West VirginiaShelley Moore Capito R Won58.3%Rachel Fetty Anderson D37.9%$15.2K$98.5Kwon
WyomingHarriet Hageman R Won65.2%James Byrd D34.8%$2K$10.1Kunder $100K

Governor races

StateCandidates and voteDem. sideRep. sideBigger spender
AlabamaTommy Tuberville R Won52.0%Doug Jones D48.0%$45.9K$96.8Kwon
AlaskaJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins D49.1%Bernadette Wilson R29.2%Not yet called · 73.8% in$598.9K$147.1K–
ArizonaKatie Hobbs D Won55.4%Andy Biggs R42.8%$1.2M$3.1Mlost
ArkansasSarah Huckabee Sanders R Won53.9%Fred Love D38.6%$11.3K$51.5Kunder $100K
CaliforniaXavier Becerra D Won64.6%Steve Hilton R35.4%$2.9M$49.6Kwon
ColoradoPhil Weiser D Won60.8%Victor Marx R33.5%$84.5K$62.7Kwon
ConnecticutNed Lamont D Won59.3%Ryan Fazio R40.7%$284.2K$97.3Kwon
FloridaByron Donalds R Won50.0%David Jolly D48.7%$573.5K$751.1Kwon
GeorgiaKeisha Lance Bottoms D Won54.3%Rick Jackson R45.7%$737.2K$680Kwon
HawaiiJosh Green D Won72.6%Gary Cordery R27.4%$68.6K$1.1Kunder $100K
IdahoBrad Little R Won57.1%Terri Pickens D32.3%$10.7K$28.1Kunder $100K
IllinoisJB Pritzker D Won59.8%Darren Bailey R36.8%$1.6M$19.6Kwon
IowaRob Sand D Won55.5%Zach Lahn R44.5%$1.5M$22.9Kwon
KansasCindy Holscher D50.3%Ty Masterson R49.7%Not yet called · 98.7% in$123.3K$569.8K–
MaineHannah Pingree D Won54.5%Bobby Charles R37.4%$336.8K$533.5Klost
MarylandWes Moore D Won62.8%Dan Cox R33.2%$309.6K$15.1Kwon
MassachusettsMaura Healey D Won62.2%Michael Minogue R34.5%$343.6K$737.8Klost
MichiganJocelyn Benson D Won54.5%John James R43.8%$1.4M$2Mlost
MinnesotaAmy Klobuchar D Won55.5%Lisa Demuth R42.6%$699.5K$194.8Kwon
NebraskaJim Pillen R Won50.8%Lynne Walz D42.2%$84K$64.7Klost
NevadaAaron Ford D Won51.5%Joe Lombardo R44.2%$742.1K$405.7Kwon
New HampshireKelly Ayotte R Won51.4%Cinde Warmington D47.1%$61.6K$37.5Kunder $100K
New MexicoDeb Haaland D Won57.3%Greggory Hull R42.7%$747.5K$108.7Kwon
New YorkKathy Hochul D Won59.6%Bruce Blakeman R40.2%$994.6K$2.1Mlost
OhioAmy Acton D Won52.3%Vivek Ramaswamy R44.4%$3.1M$2.9Mwon
OklahomaMike Mazzei R Won51.9%Cyndi Munson D45.9%$52K$388.3Kwon
OregonTina Kotek D Won52.6%Christine Drazan R44.5%$540.3K$295.7Kwon
PennsylvaniaJosh Shapiro D Won60.4%Stacy Garrity R38.3%$2.1M$108.4Kwon
Rhode IslandHelena Foulkes D Won57.7%Kenneth Block I27.8%$116.6K$24.2Kwon
South CarolinaAlan Wilson R Won51.6%Jermaine Johnson D47.1%$93.6K$191.6Kwon
South DakotaLarry Rhoden R Won63.5%Dan Ahlers D36.5%$8.3K$357.4Kwon
TennesseeMarsha Blackburn R Won45.5%Jerri Green D43.0%$44.6K$290.2Kwon
TexasGina Hinojosa D Won52.8%Greg Abbott R45.7%$3.5M$773.8Kwon
VermontPhil Scott R Won52.6%Amanda Janoo D45.6%$48.3K$15Kunder $100K
WisconsinDavid Crowley D Won54.0%Tom Tiffany R46.0%$1.1M$2.7Mlost
WyomingEric Barlow R Won68.6%Rebecca Bextel other16.8%$2.3K$83.5Kunder $100K

Spend is what the actor model placed on each race (Senate, House or governor, by state), from candidates’ own committees and outside groups, at the midpoints of Meta’s ranges; Meta ads only, not television, mail, streaming or other platforms. The bigger spender is the side, Democratic or Republican, that spent more; spend that took no side is left out. A race counts only once called, won by one of the two parties, and with at least $100K spent on it by the two sides. Results are the unofficial count as of 6 November 2026.

03

Who paid

Meta returned 1,167,599 ads delivered in the United States under its political and issue label since 4 May 2026. A classifier set aside 408,006 as commercial or unrelated and 18,977 as foreign politics. The 740,568 that remain were paid for in dollars by 22,991 declared funders on 24,034 pages.

A model read each ad for the side it works for (it supports a Democrat or attacks a Republican, or the reverse) and the contest it is about. Federal races, for Congress, took the most money, and the Democratic side most of that. In state races, for governor and the legislatures, the two sides were close. Ballot measures were argued mostly without a side.

The largest outside group on each side, with what the FEC register says it is: WinSenate, on the Democratic side, spent $8M on Meta across one page and is on the FEC record as a super PAC (independent expenditures only), with $278M of independent expenditures for Democrats through 1 November 2026. Common Sense Voters Coalition, paid for by MAGA INC, on the Republican side, spent $13.7M on Meta across 2 pages and is on the FEC record as a hybrid PAC with a non-contribution account (non-qualified), with $42.9M of independent expenditures for Republicans through 1 November 2026.

Spend by side

$200M
$119M
No side
$165M

Spend by race

Federal
$143M
State
$103M
Ballot measures
$31.9M
Local
$24.1M
No specific race
$181M
RaceDemocratsRepublicansNo side
Federal$100M$41.2M$2.3M
State$50.5M$41.1M$11.7M
Ballot measures$1.1M$381.2K$30.4M
Local$6M$3.5M$14.6M
No specific race$42M$32.5M$106M

The largest advertisers

All 24,034 pages, with search and filters: every advertiser (CSV). Both parties and every federal candidate with ads also have a page: parties and candidates.

PageTypeSideRaceAdsSpend
Common Sense Voters CoalitionGroupRep.None8,236$13.1M
James TalaricoCandidateDem.Federal444$9.1M
DemocratsPartyDem.None6,248$8.1M
WinSenateGroupDem.Federal560$8M
Abdul El-SayedCandidateDem.Federal7,207$7.5M
Lower Costs NowGroupDem.None9,830$7M
America PACGroupRep.None1,444$6.8M
Jon OssoffCandidateDem.Federal340$4.9M
No on 40: Protect Funding for Schools, Healthcare & Public SafetyGroupNoneMeasure1,034$4.6M
One NationGroupRep.Federal1,897$4.5M
Turning Point PACGroupRep.State1,593$4.1M
Working AmericaGroupDem.Federal7,252$3.2M
Rep. Gina HinojosaCandidateDem.State8,499$3.1M
Yes on Proposition 42GroupNoneMeasure869$3.1M
WorkMoneyGroupDem.None1,717$3M

Side and race are labels a model gave each ad, checked against a hand-labelled set (side 96.5%, race 97.8%). A page’s side and race are those most of its spend went to. A party’s own pages (the DNC’s, for instance) link to the party; a candidate’s, to the candidate.

04

The final weeks

Both sides built through September and peaked in October. In the week of 12 Oct, Republicans came closest: $16.1M against $17.1M for Democrats.

The week of 26 Oct looks small only because its ads were still running when we pulled them: their spend is as of 31 October 2026, and grows with every day they run. In that week Republicans launched $6.7M and Democrats $5.8M.

Democratic side, spend by week the ad started

May 2026
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
 Spend still counting
Nov

Republican side, spend by week the ad started

May 2026
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
 Spend still counting
Nov

Meta reports an ad’s spend over its whole life, so a week holds the full cost of the ads that started in it. Both strips share one scale. Ads that started before 4 May 2026 and were still running are left out of the chart.

05

Google and YouTube

Google’s register of election ads holds 136.1K ads from 5,578 verified advertisers shown in the United States since 4 May 2026, worth $1.03B+ by Google’s ranges: 2.1 times what Meta’s archive holds for the same weeks. 81% of the ads were video, which on Google means YouTube. Google records no side, so each advertiser’s side comes from its FEC committee, the way Meta’s payer lines are matched, or failing that from a web search of its verified name, the same search that identifies Meta pages; 78% of the money is placed on a side, 21% takes none (ballot measures, companies, public bodies), and 1.8% could not be placed.

136.1K

Google election ads shown in the US since 4 May 2026

$1.03B+

spent, by Google’s ranges, against $409–558M on Meta

81%

of the ads were video, run on YouTube

5,578

verified advertiser accounts

25% of the year’s Google spend went out in the fortnight before the vote, the weeks of 18 Oct and 25 Oct.

Google election ads shown in the United States, spend by week · grey before the Meta window opens on 4 May

Jan 2026
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
NovElection, 3 Nov

Meta and Google, by side

Democratic committees and the groups on their side bought the most on Google too: $449–543M, against $348–422M for the other side. $212M+ took no side, and $18.5–24.3M could not be placed.

Meta, from 4 MayGoogle, from 4 May
$200M$449–543M
$119M$348–422M
No side
$165M$212M+
Not placed
$18.5–24.3M

Not a committee

Kalshi Inc, Blockratize Inc, and Money Metals Exchange LLC are among Google’s largest election advertisers with no FEC record: companies whose ads name candidates and races. Together they bought $97.9M+, 9.7% of the register.

The largest Google advertisers

Every advertiser on Google is identity-verified, so a name is the buyer, not a page. A side comes from the FEC committee the name matches, or, marked with an asterisk, from a web search of the verified name. A name that matches an FEC committee links to its Vipima page; the others open the advertiser in Google’s Ads Transparency Center. States are the ones the advertiser’s ads named, television markets and ZIP codes folded into their state.

AdvertiserSideAdsFormatsGoogle spendTargeted
Kalshi Inccompany24096 video · 144 text$67.1M+22 states
SLF PACRep.3,0553,031 video · 24 text$31.7–38M14 states
WINSENATEDem.1,5111,437 video · 74 text$30.6–36.6M14 states
HMPDem.1,0351,033 video · 2 text$21–25.2M20 states
JON OSSOFF FOR SENATEDem.215198 video · 15 text · 2 image$19.6–23.5MGeorgia
MAGA INC.Rep.4,0202,250 video · 672 text · 1,098 image$17.8–22.7M31 states
Blockratize Inccompany8178 video · 1 text · 2 image$17.5M+national
CLFRep.2,4032,400 video · 3 text$15.3–19M27 states
Money Metals Exchange LLCcompany1882 video · 183 text · 3 image$13.3–16.1M50 states
NO ON PROP 40 - DOCTORS, TEACHERS, SMALL BUSINESSES, WORKING FAMILIES AND PUBLIC SAFETY AGAINST THE RECKLESS WEALTH TAX EXPERIMENTballot measure1,8021,802 video$13.2–16.1MCalifornia
TEXANS FOR GREG ABBOTTRep.*6765 video · 2 text$12.9–15.6MTexas
NO GOING BACK PAC INC.Rep.948948 video$12.7–15.5M25 states
ONE NATIONRep.*527527 video$11.3–13.4M8 states
Jackson for Governor, Inc.Rep.*802783 video · 19 text$11.3–13.6MGeorgia · Florida
LCV Victory FundDem.269269 video$10.8–12.8M21 states
YES ON 42 - PROTECT RETIREMENT & LIFE SAVINGS, A COALITION OF RETIREES, BLUE-COLLAR WORKERS, SENIORS, VETERANS, SMALL BUSINESSESS & TAXPAYERSballot measure992974 video · 18 text$8.8–10.6MCalifornia
Steyer for Governor 2026Dem.*161130 video · 31 text$8.7–10.1MCalifornia
AMERICA PACRep.684684 video$8.3–9.9M17 states
Lower Costs NowDem.1,7221,722 video$8.1–10.2M10 states
One NationRep.*706706 video$8–9.5M4 states
MAGA INCRep.7676 video$7.9–9.4MTexas
Byron DonaldsRep.*222222 video$7.6–9.1MFlorida · Alabama · Georgia
DNC SERVICES CORP / DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEEDem.16072 video · 88 text$7–8.4Mnational
MAJORITY FORWARD FUNDDem.*216208 video · 8 text$6.9–8.1M6 states
TEXAS FOREVERDem.110105 video · 5 text$6.6–7.8MTexas

Where the single-state money went

StateAdsAdvertisersGoogle spendLargest advertiser
California11,079620$117–141MNO ON PROP 40 - DOCTORS, TEACHERS, SMALL BUSINESSES, WORKING FAMILIES AND PUBLIC SAFETY AGAINST THE RECKLESS WEALTH TAX EXPERIMENT
Ohio7,542263$91–108MWINSENATE
Texas5,352313$84–101MTEXANS FOR GREG ABBOTT
Michigan8,845325$67.8–82MWINSENATE
Georgia3,054180$46.9–56.4MJON OSSOFF FOR SENATE
Iowa5,292188$46.4–56.4MRob Sand for Iowa
Florida4,084307$35.9–43.2MByron Donalds
Wisconsin3,039148$26.3–31.9MTiffany for Wisconsin
Pennsylvania3,996234$25.9–31.6MSHAPIRO FOR PENNSYLVANIA
North Carolina2,724159$24.4–29.4MSLF PAC

Ads whose targeting named one state only; an ad aimed at several states counts for none of them. Google’s own state table is cumulative since 2018, so the state map above stays Meta-only.

Google reports each ad’s spend and impressions as a range and publishes no ad text; a range with an open top ($3M and above) is shown as a floor with a plus. The figures are sums of range bounds and the ads are not classified by message. Sides rest on FEC records first and on a cached web search of the verified name second, with its evidence and sources kept for every advertiser. Source: Google’s political advertising transparency report, updated 5 November 2026.

06

Candidates and outside groups

1,181 federal candidates paid for ads through 2,047 FEC-registered committees, for $76.3M in all. The Senate races take the most: James Talarico (Senate, Texas, $9.6M), Abdul El-Sayed (Senate, Michigan, $7.5M), and Jonathan Ossoff (Senate, Georgia, $6.5M). The largest House spender is Tom Tiffany (House, Wisconsin 7, $1.7M).

The first Republican on the list of candidates is Tom Tiffany (House, Wisconsin 7, $1.7M), at rank 9. Republican candidates leave Meta to outside groups: the largest Republican-side funders are MAGA INC, SLF PAC, and America PAC.

Senate candidates

CandidateStatePartyAdsSpend
James TalaricoTexasDemocrat546$9.6M
Abdul El-SayedMichiganDemocrat7,207$7.5M
Jonathan OssoffGeorgiaDemocrat496$6.5M
Annie AndrewsSouth CarolinaDemocrat4,813$2.6M
Troy JacksonMaineDemocrat4,758$2.3M
Mary PeltolaAlaskaDemocrat1,740$2.2M
Sherrod BrownOhioDemocrat685$2.2M
Adam HamiltonKansasDemocrat646$1.7M
Joshua TurekIowaDemocrat2,298$1.4M
Angela NixonFloridaDemocrat448$1.2M

House candidates

CandidateSeatPartyAdsSpend
Tom TiffanyHouse, Wisconsin 7Republican951$1.7M
Brandon GillHouse, Texas 26Republican781$1.6M
Eric JonesHouse, California 4Democrat568$936.7K
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezHouse, New York 14Democrat2,446$902.2K
Marie Gluesenkamp PerezHouse, Washington 3Democrat392$755.9K
Anthony ConstantinoHouse, New York 21Republican1,695$725.8K
Ilhan OmarHouse, Minnesota 5Democrat27$537.3K
Bernard TaylorHouse, Florida 21Democrat363$533.1K
Manny RutinelHouse, Colorado 8Democrat163$452.1K
Yevgeny VindmanHouse, Virginia 7Democrat175$433.5K

The largest funders

Funders as the ads’ disclaimers name them, across all their pages. Each name links to the funder’s largest page.

A candidate’s figures are the ads the actor model tied to one of their FEC committees; a super PAC’s ads for them count for the PAC, not the candidate. State and local candidates have no national register: they appear as advertisers, not candidates.

07

Networks of lifestyle pages

Our detector looks for pages that run identical or near-identical ad text. It found 971 such groups of pages in the US data, and in none of them does a page hide its funder. There is no covert network of the kind we found in Israel.

What there is: a few disclosed networks of pages with friendly local names (moms’ groups, sports talk, local news) run by one funder each. Most urge people to vote or ask about prices; the local-news sites attack. They spent $209.7K between them, next to the $200M on the Democratic side. A story about form, not scale.

971

groups of pages sharing ad text

0

of them with a page that hides its funder

92

pages in the 4 networks below

$209.7K

spent by those networks

FunderPagesAdsSpendFirst adAttack
Metric Media LLC42340$69.5K12 May61%
AMERICAN FAMILY VOICES INC181,152$64.7K6 May42%
Stronger Together Ohio14707$46K3 May36%
Story Network Foundation18586$29.4K19 Oct3.4%

Texts they shared across their pages

  • Gas, groceries, healthcare - or another cost entirely? #Discussion #Corruption

    16 ads on 8 pages · AMERICAN FAMILY VOICES INC

  • The signs are everywhere. Even in the cornfields. Vote by Nov. 3rd. #OHVotes #OHMatters #OHLife

    23 ads on 13 pages · Stronger Together Ohio

  • Like a Michigan cherry orchard, progress takes seasons. Our votes are the seeds, and every counted ballot helps them grow. Share with someone who needs a reminder → #MIMatters #MILife #MIElections

    14 ads on 7 pages · Story Network Foundation

Every page here declares its funder in Meta’s disclaimer. The detector compares ad texts across pages; a link alone is not counted as shared text. Nothing here establishes inauthentic accounts or foreign involvement.

08

What the ads said

Weighted by spend, 50% of the Democratic side’s classified money went on attack ads, 45% of the Republican side’s and 28% of the money with no side.

Democratic-side ads named Donald Trump, Jon Husted, and Susan Collins most. Republican-side ads went after Democrats, Sherrod Brown, and David Crowley. Democrats led on electoral process & turnout, corruption & governance, and candidate profile; Republicans on economy & cost of living, candidate profile, and electoral process & turnout.

Tone by side

SideAds readAttackPromotionalInformational
Democrats236,82050%46%4.0%
Republicans118,47145%48%6.7%
No side303,20528%37%35%

Most-attacked, by spend

Democrats

Donald Trump
$10.3M
Jon Husted
$4.3M
Susan Collins
$2.6M
Ashley Hinson
$2.4M
MAGA
$2.4M
Ken Paxton
$2.2M
GOP
$2.1M
Mike Rogers
$1.9M

Republicans

Democrats
$3.3M
Sherrod Brown
$2.3M
David Crowley
$2.1M
Katie Hobbs
$2M
James Talarico
$1.9M
Amy Acton
$1.3M
Kathy Hochul
$1.2M
Josh Turek
$1.1M

Topics by side, share of classified spend

TopicDemocratsRepublicansNo side
Electoral process & turnout35%30%26%
Economy & cost of living26%34%23%
Candidate profile28%31%12%
Corruption & governance32%13%13%
Health14%7.7%17%
Security, crime & immigration10%21%12%
Infrastructure & energy11%9.8%18%
Education4.2%9.0%9.6%

Topics and tone are classified by a model; an ad can carry several topics. Targets are as the ad names them, except Donald Trump, whose spellings are counted together; “Republicans” and “MAGA Republicans” count apart.

09

What the ads said about the war, gas and Epstein

The war was argued through the pump, not as a war. Ads that name Iran took $3M, 0.6% of all spend, from 497 pages; 87% of that money was on the Democratic side and 88% of it was attack ads, most of them in a handful of Senate races. Ads about gas prices took $3.3M, and 39% of that money also names Iran or the war. The peace frame (“forever war”, “endless war”) is $850.8K in all; the betrayal frame, the war as a broken promise, $71.7K.

Republicans left the war alone. 0.1% of Republican-side spend ($84.7K) names Iran, and $8.9K of it names Trump and the war in one breath. The few that do distance the candidate from it:

  • Mike Rogers will fight to end the war in Iran, bring down the cost of gas, and make housing affordable. Return your ballot or find your Early Vote location!

    Iran · 5 October 2026 · $6–7K · 1M+ impressions · The Sentinel Action Fund · Promotional · Ad Library

Epstein was the largest late attack line in the Senate races: $3.6M in all, $2.4M of it in Oct 2026, 90% of it Democratic-side attack ads, and 40% of it from one page, WinSenate. Its targets, with the result of their race: Jon Husted (lost), Roger Marshall (lost), Ken Paxton (lost), Ashley Hinson (lost), and Dan Sullivan (not called). Every called target lost, in the same races where every other attack line ran too, so the Epstein ads say nothing on their own about why.

Themes by spend

Ads whose text names the theme, at Meta’s range midpoints; an ad can count in several rows. Share is of every domestic dollar in the report.

ThemeSpendShareDemocratic sideRepublican sidePeak month
Prices, costs, tariffs$53.9M11%$26M$12.1MOct 2026
Trump by name$40.1M8.3%$33.7M$5.2MOct 2026
Health care$31.1M6.4%$17.5M$3.8MOct 2026
Immigration and ICE$9.5M2.0%$4.5M$3MOct 2026
Abortion$5.7M1.2%$3M$198.1KOct 2026
Gas prices$3.3M0.7%$2.1M$779.2KOct 2026
Epstein$3.6M0.7%$3.5M$86.6KOct 2026
Iran$3M0.6%$2.6M$84.7KOct 2026
Israel and Gaza$1.6M0.3%$1.1M$137.3KAug 2026
AIPAC$2.2M0.4%$2.1M$43.3KJul 2026

Iran: spend by week the ad started

May 2026
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
 Spend still counting
Nov

Epstein: spend by week the ad started

May 2026
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
 Spend still counting
Nov

The costliest ad on each

The highest-spend ad whose text names Iran, gas prices and Epstein, as it ran.

  • The endless war in Iran is costing us all. Mike Rogers said it would be quick. Instead, we are paying the price.

    Iran · 4 September 2026 · $150–175K · 1M+ impressions · WinSenate · Attack · Ad Library

  • Mike Collins is loyal to Trump above all else. He even supports Trump’s War in Iran, which has caused gas prices to soar and cost taxpayers billions. Call (202) 225-4101 and tell Mike Collins to stop supporting Trump’s war and put Georgia first.

    Gas prices · 12 August 2026 · $100–125K · 1M+ impressions · Georgia Votes · Attack · Ad Library

  • Senator Jon Husted took over $100,000 from one of Epstein's closest friends and co-conspirators, Les Wexner. It's no surprise he voted to keep the Epstein files a secret. Husted can’t be trusted.

    Epstein · 7 October 2026 · $200–250K · 1M+ impressions · WinSenate · Attack · Ad Library

Israel and Gaza took $1.6M and AIPAC $2.2M, 34% of it in Jul 2026: a Democratic-primary fight of the summer, not a general-election theme.

Themes are keyword matches on the ad text (body and link title), Meta ads only: an ad that names a thing counts whatever it says about it, one that alludes without the word is missed, and an ad can count in several themes. A share of spend is a share of what advertisers paid for, not of what voters heard. Targets are as the message model names them; a result is the unofficial count’s, joined by name to the Senate races.

10

Spanish

Ads in Spanish (alone or beside English) took $5.8M, 1.2% of all spend: $2M on the Democratic side, $819.9K on the Republican side and $3M with no side.

Language as the message model read it. Spanish ads appear as they ran on each page’s Vipima page, marked Spanish.

11

Public bodies

Public bodies spent $10.4M on ads Meta filed as political: secretaries of state and election offices with voting information, a state lottery, a tribal government, cities.

PageAdsSpendFirst ad
California Secretary of State81$868.7K15 Oct
California Lottery62$740K25 May
Yuhaaviatam252$601K1 Sep
NYC Votes396$356.6K15 May
Maryland Department of Health195$314.3K1 May
Tobacco Free Florida135$293.9K6 May
USPS Business11$183.6K3 Jun
Maricopa County Recorder’s Office30$166.7K6 Oct
NJ Department of Human Services768$160.6K1 May
VoteTexas276$146.5K8 May

Read this with care

Spend and impressions are midpoints of Meta’s ranges, not actuals. Impressions above one million are reported as “1M+”, so impression totals are floors, and the biggest buyers are undercounted most.

Meta reports an ad’s spend over its whole life; it is counted in the week the ad started. Ads still running before the vote carry their spend as of our 31 October 2026 pull, so the last weeks are low and will grow. Only ads paid in dollars are summed (48 domestic ads in other currencies are left out).

Side and race level are model labels, checked against hand-labelled samples (side 97.4%, race level 97.1%); see methodology. “No side” is not neutral money: it is issue groups, ballot measures and pages that take no side, or both. A page whose payer is an FEC-registered committee takes its side from the FEC record instead: a candidate’s party, a party committee’s own, or the side its independent expenditures favour. Its advertiser page shows that record.

Candidates are the FEC’s; an ad counts for a candidate when the model ties it to one of their committees. Outside groups that support a candidate count for themselves.

The section on the war, gas and Epstein counts ads by keywords in their text (body and link title): an ad that names a thing counts whatever it says about it, an ad that alludes without the word is missed, and an ad can count in several themes.

Google figures are sums of Google’s per-ad ranges, never midpoints. Google publishes no ad text, so its ads are not classified by tone, topic or race. An advertiser takes a side from its FEC committee’s record, or from a web search of its verified name whose evidence is kept; a company or a ballot committee takes none.

The data starts on 4 May 2026; the archive back to November 2025 is still being collected, and the report will be re-run when it is in.

Results are the unofficial count as of 6 November 2026, compiled from nbcnews.com and ballotpedia.org; a race is called when they called it, and counts may still move. Setting spend against a result reads Meta ads only: television, mail, streaming and other platforms are not in the data, and in most races they cost more. A race counts as evidence only with at least $100K of Meta spend by the two sides, and a correlation with the winner says nothing about cause: favourites raise and spend more.

Every election gets the same treatment: repeated archive collection before the vote, classification with published accuracy, and a public report. The elections covered and coming up are on the home page. Working on one of them? Get in touch.

The next report, the day it lands

One email per published election report. No other use of your address, unsubscribe anytime (privacy).